Analytics
Yes is at 8%, down 42 points from 50% when the market opened on 9 Apr 2026.
Across the 187 daily closes on record from 9 Apr 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (16 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 9 Apr 2026 and the lowest 4.5% on 7 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 6.5%; a month before, 5%. Its largest one-day move was 14 points up, to 36% on 30 Apr 2026.
$38.95 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $42.42K since listing. The order book holds $11.25K, with a 4.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 299 trades, $598.9 bought Yes and $16.23K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Capital-Endoderm with 812 shares; the largest No position is yevhenry with 700. Ten wallets hold 81.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 2:28 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 187 points, 9 Apr 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Apr 2026 | 50.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 8.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Capital-Endoderm | Yes | 811.81 |
| yevhenry | No | 700.01 |
| BigBoiBettin | Yes | 457.68 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. Once a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ukraine-calls-a-referendum-on-peace-deal-with-russia-by-january-31
| shred7777 |
| No |
| 330 |
| Eia | No | 308.76 |
| Ersicolus | Yes | 250.01 |
| Perypery | Yes | 243.83 |
| Outsmarter | No | 135.01 |
| Azure Orbit D78E | Yes | 92.29 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 77.35 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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