Analytics
Yes is at 3%, down 47 points from 50% when the market opened on 21 Nov 2025.
Across the 316 daily closes on record from 21 Nov 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (27 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 54.5% on 28 Dec 2025 and the lowest 3% on 21 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 3%; a month before, 6.5%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 33.5% on 22 Nov 2025.
It is one of 3 markets under “Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces by...?”.
$198.65 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $128.58K since listing. The order book holds $17.93K, with a 1.7% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $718.81 bought Yes and $16.14K bought No; the largest was a $2.06K buy of No at 92.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Jerzy with 8.7K shares; the largest No position is KrackenSruster with 10.9K. Ten wallets hold 78.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 4:48 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 316 points, 21 Nov 2025 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Nov 2025 | 50.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 3.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| KrackenSruster | No | 10.85K |
| Jerzy | Yes | 8.71K |
| AlexPro | Yes | 5.63K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Ukraine to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation. A qualifying agreement must include a commitment by Ukraine to limit the total number of personnel in its armed forces. This includes any specific numerical cap on the number of personnel Ukraine may have in its armed forces, or any proportional limit on Ukrainian armed forces personnel (e.g., a commitment to reduce the size of the armed forces by a percentage of its current size). Limits on the number of personnel in specific branches of the Ukrainian armed forces will not count. Other limits on Ukrainian military powers, such as the relinquishment of long-range weapons or limits on other categories of armaments or military capabilities, that do not constrain the total number of personnel in Ukraine’s armed forces, will not qualify. An agreement by Ukraine to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not yet finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been made will also qualify.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ukraine-agrees-to-limit-size-of-armed-forces-before-2027
| ScottyNooo |
| Yes |
| 5.23K |
| cezarn132 | No | 2.29K |
| nkolbet51 | No | 2.08K |
| Outsmarter | No | 1.58K |
| bifurcatio | No | 1.55K |
| alpaca | Yes | 999.13 |
| AsapRing | No | 436.9 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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