Analytics
Yes is at 11.5%, down 35 points from 46% when the market opened on 18 Jun 2026.
Across the 129 daily closes on record from 18 Jun 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 57% on 20 Aug 2026 and the lowest 8% on 24 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 28.5%; a month before, 29.5%. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 8% on 24 Oct 2026.
$787.59 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $577.12K since listing. The order book holds $14.68K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.9K bought Yes and $51.02K bought No; the largest was a $7.37K buy of No at 67.0¢.
The largest Yes position is KoloJones with 10.5K shares; the largest No position is anoin123 with 36.4K. Ten wallets hold 70.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Aug 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 4:02 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 129 points, 18 Jun 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Jun 2026 | 46.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 11.5% |
Tyler Robinson has been charged with Aggravated Murder by The State of Utah for the death of Charlie Kirk. You can read more about that here: https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON (OTN: 70090584) by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No". If this specific charge is dropped, or otherwise changed such that it is no longer considered a criminal homicide offense (https://le.utah.gov/xcode/Title76/Chapter5/76-5-S201.html), this market will immediately resolve to "No". If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open until the resolution date (July 31) to consider further retrials. If a homicide conviction has not been rendered by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/tyler-robinson-convicted-of-homicide
| Nadmi |
| Yes |
| 9.04K |
| 0xdc3E831cad | No | 6.21K |
| Certify0148 | Yes | 6.14K |
| placerv2 | No | 5.99K |
| 0x49F206 | No | 4K |
| DOG-UndressedVersion | Yes | 3.44K |
| JoeyJokesAlot | Yes | 2.42K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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