Analytics
Yes is at 4.8%, down 16 points from 20.5% when the market opened on 18 Sep 2026.
Across the 39 daily closes on record from 18 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 20.5% on 18 Sep 2026 and the lowest 3.5% on 16 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 3.5%; a month before, 8%. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 8% on 19 Sep 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?”.
$555.51 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $3.08K since listing. The order book holds $1.35K, with a 0.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 57 trades, $66.43 bought Yes and $1.57K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Worthless-Tintype with 446 shares; the largest No position is smellyEllie with 481. Ten wallets hold 78.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 4 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 7:44 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 39 points, 18 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | 20.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 3.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| smellyEllie | No | 480.58 |
| Worthless-Tintype | Yes | 445.51 |
| hadarhaddad | No | 402.61 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults Kevin Warsh between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at Kevin Warsh, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify. A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at Kevin Warsh within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages Kevin Warsh either personally or professionally. This includes calling him a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging Kevin Warsh in his professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at his specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare"). A statement made in direct reference to Kevin Warsh will qualify even if he is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that he is the subject. The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-publicly-insults-warsh-by
| xtxpleasecallme |
| Yes |
| 319.82 |
| AlexiosV | No | 247.5 |
| greatbritain | No | 212 |
| qiangneireng | No | 200 |
| MtnMark | Yes | 182.5 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 137.11 |
| simpleman | Yes | 132.47 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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