
Resolved No on 1 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 93.7%. Yes opened at 46.5% on 27 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 35 daily closes on record from 27 Jun 2026 to 1 Aug 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 59% on 29 Jun 2026 and the lowest 2.9% on 21 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 27 points down, to 27% on 2 Jul 2026. $8.24K traded over the market's life.
20 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 2, 10:55 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 35 points, 27 Jun 2026 – 1 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Jun 2026 | 46.5% |
| 1 Aug 2026 | 6.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| Whimsical-Harmony | Yes | 50 |
| qcp7 | Yes | 44.71 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates, authorizes, or directs a federal government review process for the public release of new artificial intelligence models by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying action must create a federal process for reviewing or approving the public release of new artificial intelligence models. A qualifying review process may apply to artificial intelligence models generally, only to models meeting specified criteria (e.g.capability, safety, cybersecurity, national-security, or other risk-based criteria), or to models selected for review at the discretion of the federal government. Legislation or executive actions which create a group or committee responsible for overseeing artificial intelligence matters will only qualify if they explicitly create a qualifying review process. Non-binding statements, proposals, unconfirmed reports, or federal review of artificial intelligence models solely for government procurement or internal government use will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-orders-federal-review-for-ai-model-releases-by-may-31
| Yes |
| 40.13 |
| PPMT | Yes | 29.91 |
| tinman2 | Yes | 25 |
| gonnakilmyslf | Yes | 23 |
| joakja2008 | Yes | 16.23 |
| PPR-H | Yes | 14.29 |
| NopetyDopety | Yes | 12 |
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