Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 39% on 10 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 114 daily closes on record from 10 Jun 2026 to 1 Oct 2026, the highest close was 39% on 10 Jun 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 30 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 17 points down, to 21.5% on 12 Jun 2026. $415.59K traded over the market's life.
111 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 1:37 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 114 points, 10 Jun 2026 – 1 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Jun 2026 | 39.0% |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Chandaria | Yes | 27.04K |
| Monkeymonke | Yes | 4.85K |
| calvo7 | Yes | 4.8K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/tesla-and-spacex-merger-officially-announced-by-june-30
| DualDelta | Yes | 3.14K |
| MtnMark | Yes | 2.29K |
| shomski | Yes | 2.14K |
| julop1 | Yes | 2K |
| Shant1010 | Yes | 1.98K |
| jojo12 | Yes | 1.96K |
| HerrieDavis | Yes | 1.52K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
