Analytics
Yes is at 4.4%, down 7.1 points from 11.5% when the market opened on 18 Apr 2026.
Across the 187 daily closes on record from 18 Apr 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (10 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 19.5% on 28 May 2026 and the lowest 3.5% on 27 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.2%; a month before, 4.2%. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points up, to 14% on 25 Jul 2026.
$2.13K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $42.73K since listing. The order book holds $47.1K, with a 1.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.42K bought Yes and $10.7K bought No; the largest was a $1.42K sell of No at 94.8¢.
The largest Yes position is cliveqm with 2.8K shares; the largest No position is thoodr with 3.6K. Ten wallets hold 59.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:11 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 187 points, 18 Apr 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Apr 2026 | 11.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 4.4% |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sanae Takaichi ceases to be Prime Minister of Japan for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Takaichi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Sanae Takaichi and the government of Japan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/sanae-takaichi-out-as-prime-minister-of-japan-in-2026
| szdong |
| Yes |
| 1.84K |
| PaddyAlpha | Yes | 1.39K |
| polmarke195 | Yes | 1.29K |
| French-Dungeon | Yes | 1.24K |
| Quiet Horizon F251 | No | 1.05K |
| WeJustBettin | No | 991.52 |
| goask | Yes | 969.22 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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