Analytics
Yes is at 1.7%, down 13 points from 14.5% when the market opened on 13 Oct 2026.
Across the 13 daily closes on record from 13 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 14.5% on 13 Oct 2026 and the lowest 1.7% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.3%. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points down, to 6% on 14 Oct 2026.
$3.53K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $1.32K, with a 2.4% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 57 trades, $15.4 bought Yes and $2.11K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Perypery with 1.3K shares; the largest No position is Porx with 665. Ten wallets hold 87.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 4 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 2:14 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 13 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | 14.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 1.7% |
In 2026, the Government of the Russian Federation imposed a temporary ban on exports of diesel fuel by fuel producers, which has since been extended several times, most recently through October 31, 2026. On October 10, 2026, the government partially lifted the ban, permitting Russian fuel producers to export up to 500,000 tons of diesel fuel (see: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-10/russia-lifts-ban-on-diesel-exports-as-part-of-trump-putin-deal). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Government of the Russian Federation issues a decree, resolution, or equivalent official action revoking, suspending, or terminating the October 10, 2026 relief permitting fuel producers to export diesel fuel, or otherwise reinstating a full prohibition on exports of diesel fuel by Russian fuel producers, between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Actions that only reduce the permitted export volume or restrict the permitted destinations will not qualify unless they prohibit Russian fuel producers from exporting diesel fuel altogether. The exhaustion of the permitted 500,000-ton export volume will not qualify. The extension, renewal, or continuation of the existing ban beyond October 31, 2026 will not qualify, provided the October 10, 2026 relief remains in effect. Actions affecting only separate restrictions, including restrictions on diesel exports by entities other than fuel producers, restrictions on marine fuel or other gas oils, or restrictions on gasoline exports, will not qualify unless they also include a qualifying action relating to the producer diesel export ban. Mere statements of intent, threats, or announcements that the ban may be reinstated in the future will not qualify without a qualifying official action. Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary reinstatements of the ban will qualify. Once a qualifying action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent lifting of the ban. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Russian Federation.
| kukubaja |
| No |
| 375.11 |
| AMAM13 | Yes | 172.5 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 115 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 100 |
| simool | Yes | 100 |
| gurenus | Yes | 91.43 |
| abccbaq | No | 62.9 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/russia-reinstates-diesel-export-ban-by-october-31
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