Analytics
Yes is at 2.3%, down 49 points from 51.5% when the market opened on 22 Aug 2026.
Across the 66 daily closes on record from 22 Aug 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 57% on 26 Sep 2026 and the lowest 1.9% on 27 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 3.4%; a month before, 56.5%. Its largest one-day move was 32 points up, to 57% on 26 Sep 2026.
$3.48K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $18.24K, with a 3.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 102 trades, $170.33 bought Yes and $1.45K bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 690 shares; the largest No position is pieped with 480.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 2 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:07 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 66 points, 22 Aug 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Aug 2026 | 51.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 2.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 689.57 |
| pieped | No | 480 |
| Giorgio2 | No | 271.05 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point by the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the Silver Bulletin Flipr Forecast of the 2026 Senate election gives Republicans a greater than 50% chance to control the United States Senate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A 50.0% chance shall not be sufficient to resolve this market. The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2026 Flipr Forecast of Senate control, using the "Deluxe" version of the forecast, that can be found at https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the forecast will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If either Silver Bulletin or Flipr rebrand or otherwise change names or urls, this market will resolve based on the clearly-identified successor, should one exist. If Silver Bulletin's "Deluxe" Flipr model becomes permanently unavailable, the "Classic" model will be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/republicans-favored-to-win-the-senate-on-nate-silvers-bulletin-byptptpt
| memetal |
| No |
| 264.56 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 199.99 |
| flexer78 | Yes | 48.54 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 33.89 |
| sunnynotbunny | No | 32.79 |
| 73f44919CE0143F0e9a05F531f7C8B15c8a483a0. | Yes | 26.36 |
| velorot | Yes | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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