Analytics
Yes is at 0.1%, down 10 points from 10.5% when the market opened on 4 Sep 2026.
Across the 51 daily closes on record from 4 Sep 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 14% on 5 Sep 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 30 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.2%; a month before, 5.5%.
$500.08 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $70.46K since listing. The order book holds $20.63K, with a 0.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 436 trades, $1.17K bought Yes and $32.92K bought No; the largest was a $5.65K buy of No at 99.1¢.
The largest Yes position is jan-delarus with 7.2K shares; the largest No position is Cobalt Sphinx AB2C with 15.3K. Ten wallets hold 74% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Oct 2026, 2 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 3:07 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 51 points, 4 Sep 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Sep 2026 | 10.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 0.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Cobalt Sphinx AB2C | No | 15.25K |
| thoodr | No | 7.48K |
| jan-delarus | Yes | 7.21K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-october-31
| MrNoItAll |
| No |
| 6.79K |
| dolboyob | Yes | 5.1K |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 4.57K |
| grinder1011 | Yes | 4.26K |
| pullthetrigger | Yes | 3.14K |
| QMG-CORE | No | 2.83K |
| whispercatalyst | Yes | 2.6K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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