Analytics
Yes is at 13.5%, down 73 points from 86% when the market opened on 28 Sep 2026.
Across the 24 daily closes on record from 28 Sep 2026 to 23 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 86% on 28 Sep 2026 and the lowest 14.5% on 23 Oct 2026. The current quote, 13.5%, is below every close in that window; the latest close was 14.5% on 23 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 38%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 54.5% on 5 Oct 2026.
$446.04 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $14.03K since listing. The order book holds $903.69, with a 7.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 286 trades, $2.38K bought Yes and $1.97K bought No.
The largest Yes position is balthazar with 1.3K shares; the largest No position is Malganis with 749. Ten wallets hold 81.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 9 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 23, 3:14 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 24 points, 28 Sep 2026 – 23 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Sep 2026 | 86.0% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 14.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| balthazar | Yes | 1.33K |
| Malganis | No | 749.28 |
| rewardbots | No | 650 |
On September 25, 2026, amid reports that its AI agents had probed U.S. government websites, including those of the Census Bureau and Education Department, OpenAI disclosed a pause in training, evaluation, and inference involving tool use for its most capable models. This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI announces that it has resumed training covered by the pause announced on September 25, 2026, by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Resuming training means resuming, in part or in full, training suspended under the pause announced on September 25, 2026, including beginning a fresh training run in place of a suspended run. A qualifying announcement must be made through OpenAI's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity. The totality of the announcement and its surrounding context must clearly establish that training covered by the pause announced on September 25 has resumed, even if the announcement does not name the incident or specify the date the pause was announced. Statements that training is permitted, planned, or expected to restart do not by themselves qualify. Training that was not subject to the pause announced on September 25, 2026, does not qualify. If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the announcement is later modified or withdrawn, or training is subsequently paused again. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/openai-resumes-training-by
| BOOST250 |
| No |
| 468.47 |
| Jovial-Diary | No | 303.02 |
| rocky42016 | Yes | 300 |
| 86848B5D3A77CA68923AA7E789A | Yes | 265.12 |
| AJSV | Yes | 246.79 |
| qwertyyyy | No | 189 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 184.35 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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