Analytics
Yes is at 9.5%, down 10 points from 19.5% when the market opened on 29 Oct 2025.
Across the 323 daily closes on record from 29 Oct 2025 to 24 Oct 2026 (38 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 27.5% on 5 Sep 2026 and the lowest 7% on 9 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 11.5%; a month before, 15.5%. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points up, to 22.5% on 28 Aug 2026.
$1.07K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $333.8K since listing. The order book holds $33.12K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $3.04K bought Yes and $28.36K bought No; the largest was a $5.3K buy of No at 92.0¢.
The largest Yes position is betwick with 21.2K shares; the largest No position is CryptoLBL with 22.1K. Ten wallets hold 47.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 69 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 11:54 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 323 points, 29 Oct 2025 – 24 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Oct 2025 | 19.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 9.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| CryptoLBL | No | 22.07K |
| betwick | Yes | 21.23K |
| gloomerdoomer | Yes | 6.28K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/openai-announces-it-has-achieved-agi-before-2027
| yen4u |
| No |
| 5.59K |
| Hyperlong | No | 5.39K |
| Optimus- | Yes | 5K |
| Mr-Krabs | Yes | 4.42K |
| thoodr | No | 4.25K |
| Parz1vaI | No | 3.76K |
| Gdub | No | 3.45K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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