Analytics
Yes is at 1.6%, down 36 points from 38% when the market opened on 4 Sep 2026.
Across the 50 daily closes on record from 4 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 93.5% on 13 Sep 2026 and the lowest 1.6% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 5.5%; a month before, 58.5%. Its largest one-day move was 49 points up, to 86.5% on 5 Sep 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by...?”.
$263.09 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $5.04K since listing. The order book holds $486.72, with a 1.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 122 trades, $884.23 bought Yes and $1.01K bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 473 shares; the largest No position is Agile-Catamaran with 423. Ten wallets hold 87.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Oct 2026, 4 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 9:18 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 50 points, 4 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Sep 2026 | 38.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 1.6% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 473.5 |
| Agile-Catamaran | No | 423.35 |
| dedidanc | No | 400.46 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Flash model (3.9+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.9 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.9 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.7 Flash or Gemini 3.8 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.9, such as Gemini 3.8 Flash (released September 2, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality or security variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, Gemini Flash Cyber, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-gemini-flash-model-3pt9-released-byptptpt
| Contentious-Dinnerdate |
| Yes |
| 318.44 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 206.63 |
| caigou | No | 112 |
| dgfd76 | No | 101.53 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 78.25 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | No | 68.3 |
| totti82 | No | 64.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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