Analytics
Yes is at 26.5%, about where the market opened on 16 Oct 2026.
Across the 6 daily closes on record from 16 Oct 2026 to 23 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 29% on 21 Oct 2026 and the lowest 8% on 20 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 21 points up, to 29% on 21 Oct 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Next Gemini Argon released by...?”.
$2.38K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $398.36, with a 21.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 45 trades, $122.39 bought Yes and $468.22 bought No.
The largest Yes position is AJSV with 236 shares; the largest No position is molodoyy with 563. Ten wallets hold 94.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Feb 2027, 102 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 23, 2:40 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 16 Oct 2026 – 23 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Oct 2026 | 26.0% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 26.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| molodoyy | No | 562.6 |
| AJSV | Yes | 235.53 |
| Negative-Hunting | Yes | 100 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Argon model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Argon" and be a new Gemini Argon model release designated as newer than Gemini 4 Argon (gemini-4-argon, released October 13, 2026), regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors, including decimal version increases, new whole-number generations, or newer dated builds. For example, a newer Argon model named in the same manner as Gemini 4 Argon, including a decimal increase such as a 4.1 or a new whole-number generation such as a Gemini 5 Argon, or a newer Argon release under a new, distinct model identifier, would qualify, while Gemini 4 Argon itself, including any rollout, promotion, snapshot, price change, or thinking-level setting of it, and models whose name does not include "Argon," such as Gemini Pro, Gemini Flash, or Gemini Flash-Lite models, will not qualify. A qualifying release must carry a new, distinct model identifier; updates published under an unchanged identifier will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-gemini-argon-released-byptptpt-20261014
| Knowyourball |
| Yes |
| 90 |
| balthazar | Yes | 89.98 |
| doctorno99 | No | 57.6 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 40.01 |
| userok1558 | Yes | 34.66 |
| pppnn | Yes | 20 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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