Analytics
Yes is at 4.7%, down 42 points from 47% when the market opened on 1 Jul 2026.
Across the 111 daily closes on record from 1 Jul 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (10 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 47% on 1 Jul 2026 and the lowest 2.9% on 21 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.9%; a month before, 5.2%. Its largest one-day move was 34 points down, to 13% on 2 Jul 2026.
$180.22 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $159.56K since listing. The order book holds $30.86K, with a 1.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.14K bought Yes and $62.42K bought No.
The largest Yes position is neutralwave23 with 1.2K shares; the largest No position is mountmckinley with 1.2K. Ten wallets hold 73.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 3:04 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 111 points, 1 Jul 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | 47.0% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 4.7% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| mountmckinley | No | 1.19K |
| neutralwave23 | Yes | 1.19K |
| Recent-Pumpkinseed-Wagon | Yes | 926.15 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if active military personnel officially affiliated with any NATO or EU country enter Ukraine for combat-related military purposes directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, they must be 1) officially acknowledged as active military by the NATO or EU entity or member state they are affiliated with; 2) be publicly acknowledged by NATO or an EU-affiliated entity to have entered Ukraine for a combat-related military purpose directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia. For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution they need be active duty and acknowledged as described above. Participation in a combat role is necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes" (e.g. military personnel providing training or intelligence support would not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, however drone pilots or infantry directly attacking Russian troops, or soldiers targeting and downing missiles from Ukrainian soil would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO, the EU, or member states of either entity, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/natoeu-troops-fighting-in-ukraine-in-2025
| Porx | No | 425.26 |
| tilchi | No | 382.84 |
| BabyGroot | Yes | 309.98 |
| 007-Bond | No | 245.14 |
| shred7777 | No | 222.26 |
| DiamondBets-HighYieldFund1 | No | 211.58 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 208.48 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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