Analytics
Vultax does not execute orders. These controls open the official Polymarket market or route back into the Vultax predictions terminal.
“NATO downs another Russian drone by September 15?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “NATO downs another Russian drone by...?”. The Yes price is the crowd's implied probability that the question resolves Yes; every trade on the public order book moves it.
Trading is open until Sep 15, 2026. As of Sep 15, 2:23 PM, Yes trades at 64.0¢, a 64.0% implied chance, $2.94K traded in the last 24 hours, $589.98 resting in the order book, a 16.0% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 25 hourly price points from Sep 14, 2026 to Sep 15, 2026 (Yes between 12.5% and 74.5%); 60 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 67.9% of the loaded shares; 103 recent public fills from 54 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a NATO military downs another Russian drone by any means (kinetic, jammer, etc.) between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM Kyiv Time. A “Russian drone” refers to any drone that, based on a consensus of credible reporting, was launched from territory under Russia’s de facto control or was operated or directed by Russian forces. Where attribution remains ambiguous, the drone’s model and characteristics will be considered supporting evidence. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (CEST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the incident, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nato-downs-another-russian-drone-by-september-15-20260828
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ means the crowd gives Yes about a 21.5% chance right now. It moves with every trade, so it is a live forecast, not a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Dollars resting in the order book, waiting to be traded against. Deep liquidity lets a large order fill near the quoted price; thin liquidity means the price jumps when someone trades size.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| crypto-basenji | Yes | 1.28K |
| Raskell | No | 600 |
| HeDidWearASuit | No | 499.75 |
| Toncar16 | Yes | 300 |
| Avitz33 | No | 300 |
| Luck7.7.7 | No | 290 |
| simulacrum3 | Yes | 259.22 |
| Te0n2 | No | 200 |
| Robbb | Yes | 158 |
| Fluffy-Toast | No | 136.15 |