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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? | Yes | 199.99 | $0.665 | $170.99 | +$38 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,100?Yes | sell | 100 | $0.111 | $11.1 | 4h ago |
 |
| Yes |
| 278.1 |
| $0.328 |
| $150.17 |
| +$58.96 |
 U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by September 30? | No | 150 | $0.473 | $111.75 | +$40.75 |
 Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher? | No | 109.98 | $0.780 | $106.69 | +$20.9 |
| U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31? | No | 268.63 | $0.184 | $106.11 | +$56.76 |
 Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | No | 160 | $0.590 | $104 | +$9.6 |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | No | 120 | $0.590 | $102.6 | +$31.8 |
 Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15? | No | 110 | $0.700 | $101.2 | +$24.2 |
 Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026? | No | 189.99 | $0.228 | $98.8 | +$55.5 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480? | Yes | 145.96 | $0.690 | $93.41 | -$7.36 |
 Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | No | 113.91 | $0.491 | $89.42 | +$33.52 |
 Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 540 | $0.245 | $89.1 | -$43.5 |
 Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | No | 110 | $0.570 | $78.1 | +$15.4 |
 Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 120 | $0.620 | $77.1 | +$2.66 |
 Will Waymo launch in Denver, CO by December 31 2026? | No | 479.98 | $0.132 | $69.6 | +$6.4 |
 NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30? | No | 100 | $0.420 | $67 | +$25 |
 Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | No | 136.87 | $0.700 | $63.64 | -$32.22 |
 Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $30B by December 31? | Yes | 320 | $0.161 | $62.4 | +$10.72 |
 Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | No | 104.35 | $0.270 | $62.09 | +$33.91 |
| NATO downs another Russian drone by September 15? | No | 70 | $0.620 | $58.8 | +$15.4 |
 Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on September 14, 2026? | Yes | 68.14 | $0.677 | $58.6 | +$12.49 |
 Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? | No | 170.03 | $0.417 | $55.26 | -$15.65 |
 Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? | No | 64.19 | $0.650 | $54.56 | +$12.84 |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? | No | 114.1 | $0.547 | $52.49 | -$9.91 |
 Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 139.98 | $0.430 | $48.29 | -$11.9 |
| buy |
| 130 |
| $0.221 |
| $28.75 |
| 14h ago |
 Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Yes | sell | 65 | $0.077 | $5.01 | 15h ago |
 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?No | buy | 100 | $0.300 | $30 | 16h ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18?No | buy | 90 | $0.385 | $34.69 | 16h ago |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?No | sell | 210 | $0.192 | $40.4 | 16h ago |
| Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.218 | $10.92 | 19h ago |
| Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.185 | $18.5 | 19h ago |
| Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $30B by December 31?Yes | buy | 320 | $0.161 | $51.68 | 19h ago |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 510 | $0.050 | $25.5 | 1d ago |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?No | buy | 110 | $0.549 | $60.35 | 2d ago |
| Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on September 14, 2026?Yes | buy | 3.18 | $0.610 | $1.94 | 2d ago |
 Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?No | buy | 100 | $0.420 | $42 | 2d ago |
| Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,100?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.640 | $64 | 2d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.740 | $14.8 | 3d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.740 | $37 | 3d ago |
| Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?Yes | buy | 120 | $0.620 | $74.44 | 3d ago |
 Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?Yes | sell | 150 | $0.260 | $39 | 4d ago |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?No | buy | 30 | $0.260 | $7.8 | 5d ago |
 Will Teariki Heather be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?Yes | sell | 120 | $0.004 | $0.48 | 5d ago |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?No | buy | 70 | $0.250 | $17.5 | 5d ago |
 OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Yes | sell | 90 | $0.291 | $26.23 | 5d ago |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Yes | buy | 90 | $0.376 | $33.84 | 5d ago |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?No | buy | 50 | $0.430 | $21.5 | 5d ago |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?No | buy | 60 | $0.430 | $25.8 | 5d ago |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15?No | buy | 110 | $0.700 | $77 | 5d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?No | sell | 90 | $0.101 | $9.1 | 6d ago |
| Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 4, 2026?Yes | sell | 320 | $0.026 | $8.47 | 6d ago |
 Trump meets with Putin by December 31?No | sell | 150 | $0.420 | $63 | 6d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?No | buy | 90 | $0.220 | $19.8 | 6d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026?No | sell | 160 | $0.021 | $3.36 | 6d ago |
 Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 99.76 | $0.210 | $20.95 | 8d ago |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?No | buy | 21.78 | $0.390 | $8.49 | 9d ago |
| Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 4, 2026?Yes | buy | 260 | $0.080 | $20.74 | 9d ago |
 Will Milo Yiannopoulos be deported by September 15, 2026?Yes | buy | 140 | $0.770 | $107.8 | 10d ago |
 Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 4, 2026?Yes | buy | 110 | $0.647 | $71.15 | 11d ago |
 Will USD be between 1.9M and 2.0M Iranian rials on August 31?Yes | buy | 120 | $0.050 | $6 | 11d ago |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 9, 2026?No | buy | 40 | $0.300 | $12 | 12d ago |
 Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?No | buy | 50 | $0.570 | $28.5 | 12d ago |
 Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 20.68 | $0.002 | $0.04 | 12d ago |
| U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by September 30?No | buy | 41 | $0.480 | $19.68 | 12d ago |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 472.68 | $0.003 | $1.42 | 12d ago |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 109.99 | $0.590 | $64.89 | 13d ago |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 60 | $0.327 | $19.6 | 15d ago |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 80 | $0.320 | $25.6 | 15d ago |
| Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?No | buy | 30 | $0.420 | $12.6 | 15d ago |
| Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.1M Iranian rials on August 31?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.143 | $14.3 | 17d ago |
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Yes | sell | 380.01 | $0.180 | $68.4 | 17d ago |
 Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?No | buy | 7 | $0.160 | $1.12 | 19d ago |
 Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.2T by August 31?Yes | sell | 40 | $0.725 | $28.99 | 19d ago |