Analytics
Yes is at 9.5%, down 41 points from 50% when the market opened on 1 Jul 2026.
Across the 116 daily closes on record from 1 Jul 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 1 Jul 2026 and the lowest 5% on 3 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 9%; a month before, 7.3%. Its largest one-day move was 40 points down, to 10.5% on 2 Jul 2026.
$1.98K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $17.7K since listing. The order book holds $14.69K, with a 1.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 257 trades, $581.18 bought Yes and $4.61K bought No; the largest was a $1.48K buy of No at 91.9¢.
The largest Yes position is ClearMove with 2.2K shares; the largest No position is nope3050 with 4.1K. Ten wallets hold 92.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 3:22 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 116 points, 1 Jul 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | 50.0% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 9.5% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/naim-qassem-out-as-hezbollahs-secretary-general-by-december-31
| Avitz33 |
| Yes |
| 390 |
| Solar Lynx EC36 | Yes | 347.79 |
| ChainReaction-392 | Yes | 219.43 |
| Vengance | Yes | 142.09 |
| Jean-Claude322 | No | 105.8 |
| ofcourseistillloveyou2019 | No | 100 |
| whumpa | Yes | 95 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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