Analytics
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“Microsoft matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?”. The Yes price is the crowd's implied probability that the question resolves Yes; every trade on the public order book moves it.
Trading is open until Nov 1, 2026. As of Sep 15, 4:51 AM, Yes trades at 42.5¢, a 42.5% implied chance, $1.16K traded in the last 24 hours, $548.32 resting in the order book, a 3.0% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 8 hourly price points from Sep 14, 2026 to Sep 15, 2026 (Yes between 22.5% and 48.0%); 13 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 94.5% of the loaded shares; 17 recent public fills from 11 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
On September 12, 2026, Anthropic committed to giving embedded third-party evaluators permanent, ongoing, employee-level access to its AI models and training processes. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces a commitment to grant one or more third-party evaluators ongoing employee-level access to its systems, AI models, and training processes during development by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Arrangements limited to evaluating models before release will not qualify. Current agreements with the Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI) to provide pre-deployment access to AI models will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made through the listed company's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity. Statements that endorse third-party evaluation, describe it as under consideration, or express an intention to explore or discuss it will not qualify. A commitment made as part of a broader agreement with other companies or with a government will qualify, provided the listed company is a party to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above. If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the commitment is binding, is later modified or withdrawn, or is ever implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed company; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/microsoft-matches-anthropics-evaluator-commitment-by-october-31
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ means the crowd gives Yes about a 21.5% chance right now. It moves with every trade, so it is a live forecast, not a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Dollars resting in the order book, waiting to be traded against. Deep liquidity lets a large order fill near the quoted price; thin liquidity means the price jumps when someone trades size.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| AiBird | Yes | 342.65 |
| GrandeFromage | No | 182.48 |
| Emerald Ledger 40C6 | No | 98.37 |
| Solar Signal F3B1 | Yes | 30 |
| lissartter | No | 24.35 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | No | 21 |
| FdoGH | No | 21 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 20 |
| Real-Scotch | No | 20 |
| Mustafa-sweden | No | 20 |