Analytics
Yes is at 26.1%, down 2 points from 28% when the market opened on 23 Sep 2026.
Across the 27 daily closes on record from 23 Sep 2026 to 26 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 49.5% on 24 Sep 2026 and the lowest 5.9% on 30 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 26.1%; a month before, 49.4%. Its largest one-day move was 21 points up, to 49.5% on 24 Sep 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “Kimi K4 released by…?”.
$2.58K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $1.94K, with a 0.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 44 trades, $78.44 bought Yes and $1.24K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Contentious-Dinnerdate with 563 shares; the largest No position is endoption with 1.5K.
Trading closes on 1 Apr 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 26, 7:22 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 27 points, 23 Sep 2026 – 26 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Sep 2026 | 28.0% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | 26.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| endoption | No | 1.55K |
| Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yes | 563.25 |
| DingDongChicken | Yes | 314.04 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”. Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/kimi-k4-released-by-20260722184115883
| AJSV | Yes | 236.26 |
| molodoyy | Yes | 100.25 |
| 11B7c7e5D961 | Yes | 100 |
| qbug | Yes | 60 |
| CT-test | Yes | 51.9 |
| Malganis | Yes | 50 |
| youtube-trader | Yes | 40.15 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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