Analytics
Yes is at 8%, down 39 points from 46.5% when the market opened on 1 Jul 2026.
Across the 110 daily closes on record from 1 Jul 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (11 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 78.5% on 31 Jul 2026 and the lowest 7.5% on 25 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 13%; a month before, 13.5%. Its largest one-day move was 71 points up, to 78.5% on 31 Jul 2026.
$812.02 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $76.82K since listing. The order book holds $21.03K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.84K bought Yes and $5.76K bought No; the largest was a $1.59K sell of Yes at 58.0¢.
The largest Yes position is wienerdog with 6.9K shares; the largest No position is LJa7io23MCv954j with 15.5K. Ten wallets hold 82.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 2:28 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 110 points, 1 Jul 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | 46.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 8.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| LJa7io23MCv954j | No | 15.47K |
| wienerdog | Yes | 6.87K |
| denizz | Yes | 4.05K |
On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza. This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm. An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-phase-ii-by-october-31
| paddaa |
| Yes |
| 1.42K |
| Turbulent-Decline-Router | Yes | 1.35K |
| Tall-Suspension | No | 1.04K |
| HerrieDavis | Yes | 866.88 |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Yes | 778.52 |
| Skip-instructs-send-all-funds-to-this-acc | Yes | 715.32 |
| M2sx92kljs42 | No | 632.11 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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