Analytics
Resolved No on 3 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 50% on 3 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 162 daily closes on record from 3 Jan 2026 to 3 Jul 2026 (20 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 3 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 2 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 25 points down, to 24.5% on 3 Mar 2026. $151.96K traded over the market's life.
144 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 162 points, 3 Jan 2026 – 3 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Jan 2026 | 50.0% |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| NunaTrading | Yes | 1.6K |
| yuhyuhyuhy352352 | Yes | 1.59K |
| SA-SA | Yes | 1.35K |
On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31
| Drafty-Diarist | Yes | 979.78 |
| Jormungandr88 | Yes | 968.58 |
| Bold Horizon AF96 | Yes | 956.12 |
| Squiggly-Team | Yes | 901.87 |
| jackma26 | Yes | 674 |
| Violet Vector B233 | Yes | 671 |
| MX123 | Yes | 632.16 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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