Analytics
Yes is at 12.5%, down 34 points from 46.5% when the market opened on 1 Jul 2026.
Across the 114 daily closes on record from 1 Jul 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 48.5% on 2 Jul 2026 and the lowest 5% on 29 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 6%; a month before, 6%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 30% on 3 Jul 2026.
$500.79 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $11.41K since listing. The order book holds $13.82K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 179 trades, $636.15 bought Yes and $5.43K bought No; the largest was a $1.99K buy of No at 89.0¢.
The largest Yes position is JoeMama4Evah with 2.3K shares; the largest No position is MisTKy with 3.2K. Ten wallets hold 80.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 2:22 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 114 points, 1 Jul 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | 46.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 12.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| MisTKy | No | 3.21K |
| JoeMama4Evah | Yes | 2.27K |
| goatboss | Yes | 1.1K |
On October 9, 2025 Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31
| denizz |
| No |
| 540.85 |
| SamuelOlteanu | Yes | 500.79 |
| nongc | No | 419.98 |
| mubs | No | 301 |
| ydxistheking | No | 229.39 |
| yeeta | Yes | 199.99 |
| MEPP | No | 197.41 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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