Analytics
Yes is at 19.5%, down 9.5 points from 29% when the market opened on 10 Oct 2026.
The high was 30.5% on 13 Oct 2026 and the low 19.5% on 13 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 19.5% on 13 Oct 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Iran coup attempt by...?”.
$222.09 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.28K since listing. The order book holds $10.64K, with a 5.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 33 trades, $135.3 bought Yes and $280.89 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Haradwaith with 101 shares; the largest No position is baybug with 151.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 13, 10:02 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 5 points · 10 Oct 2026 – 13 Oct 2026 · axis zoomed to 15%–35%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | 29.0% |
| 13 Oct 2026 | 19.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| baybug | No | 151.24 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 101.24 |
| GuyFromTinder | No | 73.81 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30
| winexecutescale |
| Yes |
| 30 |
| AMAM13 | Yes | 20.85 |
| Original-Anything-Petition | Yes | 20 |
| lolzzzlol | Yes | 20 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 20 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 6.6 |
| AJSV | Yes | 6.01 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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