Analytics
Yes is at 11%, down 34 points from 45% when the market opened on 1 Jul 2026.
The high was 45% on 1 Jul 2026 and the low 5.5% on 2 Jul 2026. A week ago Yes was at 9.5%; a month ago, 8.5%. Its largest one-day move was 40 points down, to 5.5% on 2 Jul 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Iran coup attempt by...?”.
$104.84K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $31.37K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $588.21 bought Yes and $3.2K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Warren-Buffett with 20K shares; the largest No position is anoin123 with 37.3K. Ten wallets hold 89.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 81 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 13, 1:03 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 105 points · 1 Jul 2026 – 13 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | 45.0% |
| 13 Oct 2026 | 11.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| anoin123 | No | 37.33K |
| Warren-Buffett | Yes | 20K |
| Croc78 | Yes | 11.24K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30
| Hakei. |
| Yes |
| 3.38K |
| CarVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | No | 2K |
| Woeful-Wrinkle-Approach | No | 2K |
| Brookzabo | Yes | 1.74K |
| kohalacoastgabe | Yes | 1.55K |
| HuskyRRRRR | No | 1.4K |
| Xendo1 | Yes | 1.38K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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