Analytics
Yes is at 18.5%, down 32 points from 50% when the market opened on 5 Jun 2026.
Across the 138 daily closes on record from 5 Jun 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (10 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 5 Jun 2026 and the lowest 4.5% on 17 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 7%; a month before, 7.5%. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 24.5% on 6 Jun 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by...?”.
$491.55 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $95.81K since listing. The order book holds $1.18K, with a 19.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $665 bought Yes and $37.26K bought No.
The largest Yes position is bnetopt with 1.2K shares; the largest No position is Pantheon1 with 780. Ten wallets hold 72.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:41 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 138 points, 5 Jun 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Jun 2026 | 50.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 18.5% |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the relevant European country and the Government of Ukraine which creates a binding obligation for the relevant European country to defend or directly intervene on Ukraine’s behalf, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying “security guarantee” requires language that is equivalent in character to a NATO Article 5–style mutual defense commitment: the relevant European country must commit to responding militarily if Ukraine is attacked, or otherwise guarantee Ukraine’s defense through binding defense obligations. Examples of qualifying language include commitments modeled on the US treaties with Japan, South Korea, or the Philippines, or NATO's Article 5 instrument, which obligates the United States to “act to meet the common danger” through military force if an ally is attacked. Cooperative frameworks, capacity-building measures, consultative mechanisms, or nonbinding pledges will not qualify. Examples of non-qualifying arrangements include the June 13, 2024 US–Ukraine bilateral security agreement, the Taiwan Relations Act, or G7/EU “security arrangements” that provide support or consultation but stop short of binding defense guarantees. A qualifying agreement must be jointly announced and finalized, and take the form of a treaty, executive agreement, memorandum of understanding, joint declaration, or equivalent written instrument. Announcements which are statements of intent, contingent, exploratory, or otherwise not indicative of a formalized policy will not count. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Qualifying European countries include: Albania; Andorra; Armenia; Austria; Azerbaijan; Belgium; Bosnia and Herzegovina; Bulgaria; Croatia; Cyprus; Czechia; Denmark; Estonia; Finland; France; Georgia; Germany; Greece; Hungary; Iceland; Ireland; Italy; Latvia; Liechtenstein; Lithuania; Luxembourg; Malta; Moldova; Monaco; Montenegro; Netherlands; North Macedonia; Norway; Poland; Portugal; Romania; San Marino; Serbia; Slovakia; Slovenia; Spain; Sweden; Switzerland; Ukraine; United Kingdom.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/european-country-agrees-to-give-ukraine-security-guarantee-by-june-30
| bifurcatio |
| No |
| 611.12 |
| shred7777 | No | 594.27 |
| cr7 | Yes | 540.28 |
| 007-Bond | No | 400.08 |
| Basque | No | 400 |
| Bromley86 | No | 361.84 |
| stavr | Yes | 287.41 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
