Analytics
Yes is at 14.5%, down 9 points from 23.5% when the market opened on 30 Oct 2026.
Across the 2 daily closes on record from 30 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026, the highest close was 23.5% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 14.5% on 30 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 9 points down, to 14.5% on 30 Oct 2026.
40-64 ranks third of the 10 outcomes in “Elon Musk # tweets October 31 - November 2, 2026?”. 65-89 leads at 36%; 90-114 is at 28%.
$1.78K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.78K since listing. The order book holds $4.27K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 32 trades, $62.03 bought Yes and $1.02K bought No.
The largest Yes position is mcsg with 307 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.1K.
Trading closes on 2 Nov 2026, 4 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 3:09 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 30 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 10%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2026 | 23.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 14.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.09K |
| mcsg | Yes | 306.82 |
| Demet3r | Yes | 300 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 31 12:00 PM ET to November 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-october-31-november-2-2026
| amy888 |
| Yes |
| 200 |
| sferfgefvrfgh1234 | No | 145.63 |
| oboltusovao | Yes | 142.98 |
| CaprioDiLeo | Yes | 121 |
| reefv | Yes | 120 |
| SmartBoyBilly | No | 50 |
| televisionloud | Yes | 44 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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