Analytics
Yes is at 4.7%, up 2.7 points from 2% when the market opened on 21 Oct 2026.
Across the 6 daily closes on record from 21 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 2.1% on 24 Oct 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 30 Oct 2026. The current quote, 4.7%, is above every close in that window; the latest close was 1.9% on 30 Oct 2026.
400-419 ranks second of the 13 outcomes in “Elon Musk # tweets October 23 - October 30, 2026?”. 380-399 leads at 95.5%; 340-359 is at 0.1%.
$217.36K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $288.03K since listing. The order book holds $12.42K, with a 0.4% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $2.05K bought Yes and $9.39K bought No; the largest was a $1.75K buy of No at 94.7¢.
The largest Yes position is xzsa with 31.4K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 121.2K. Ten wallets hold 71.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 30 Oct 2026, tomorrow.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 3:13 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 21 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Oct 2026 | 2.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 1.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 121.16K |
| xzsa | Yes | 31.42K |
| upont | No | 18.13K |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 23 12:00 PM ET to October 30, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-october-23-october-30-2026
1 more outcome, none above 0.1%.
| LompatAja |
| Yes |
| 12.45K |
| carboyant | No | 10.53K |
| Edmonrafailov | Yes | 10.05K |
| ElonJail | Yes | 10K |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 8.92K |
| AndreaPirlo | Yes | 8.1K |
| Brotherinchrist | Yes | 6.08K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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