Analytics
Yes is at 69.5%, up 64 points from 5.4% when the market opened on 21 Oct 2026.
Across the 7 daily closes on record from 21 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 69.5% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 4.5% on 23 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.5%. Its largest one-day move was 39 points up, to 69.5% on 30 Oct 2026.
340-359 is the favourite of the 13 outcomes in “Elon Musk # tweets October 23 - October 30, 2026?”, ahead of 360-379 at 28.2%.
$72.96K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $168.22K since listing. The order book holds $3.47K, with a 2.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $6.26K bought Yes and $1.18K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Buy1Get1Free with 43.5K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 114.3K. Ten wallets hold 80.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 30 Oct 2026, tomorrow.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 21 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Oct 2026 | 5.4% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 69.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 114.28K |
| Buy1Get1Free | Yes | 43.52K |
| Mei-ji | Yes | 14.79K |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 23 12:00 PM ET to October 30, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-october-23-october-30-2026
1 more outcome, none above 0.1%.
| ElonSimp |
| Yes |
| 5.96K |
| dddtrips | Yes | 5K |
| Elonurmom | No | 3.81K |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 3.69K |
| Sugarina | Yes | 3.57K |
| RickRockRick | Yes | 3.56K |
| Bitgod | Yes | 3.23K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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