Analytics
Yes is at 4.5%, down 63 points from 67.5% when the market opened on 24 Dec 2025.
Across the 278 daily closes on record from 24 Dec 2025 to 25 Oct 2026 (28 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 67.5% on 24 Dec 2025 and the lowest 4% on 8 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4%; a month before, 4.5%. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 21% on 27 Mar 2026.
$34.6 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $36.68K since listing. The order book holds $1.97K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 474 trades, $1.96K bought Yes and $10.9K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Wojtek with 5.2K shares; the largest No position is SaracensCapital2 with 2K. Ten wallets hold 75.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 69 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 1:06 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 278 points, 24 Dec 2025 – 25 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Dec 2025 | 67.5% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 4.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Wojtek | Yes | 5.18K |
| SaracensCapital2 | No | 2K |
| 0xB16B00B5 | No | 1.22K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ecb-rate-cut-in-2026
| Dynvest |
| No |
| 1.21K |
| QMG-CORE | No | 1.07K |
| Showy-Member | Yes | 993.94 |
| perfectnostalgia | No | 906.2 |
| -67- | Yes | 800 |
| StarMaster | No | 541.03 |
| Skaliz | No | 500 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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