Analytics
Yes is at 22.5%, down 4 points from 26.5% when the market opened on 25 Jul 2026.
Across the 87 daily closes on record from 25 Jul 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 34% on 18 Aug 2026 and the lowest 22.5% on 24 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 28%; a month before, 27%. Its largest one-day move was 6 points up, to 32.5% on 26 Jul 2026.
$26.99 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $552.37K since listing. The order book holds $35.04K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $4.43K bought Yes and $22.2K bought No; the largest was a $3.25K buy of Yes at 29.5¢.
The largest Yes position is LlamaLoco0000 with 304K shares; the largest No position is SlenderMan with 94.2K. Ten wallets hold 81.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 69 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 11:56 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 87 points, 25 Jul 2026 – 24 Oct 2026, chart shows 20%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Jul 2026 | 26.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 22.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| LlamaLoco0000 | Yes | 303.98K |
| SlenderMan | No | 94.24K |
| hdlisme-acc2 | No | 49.33K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/china-x-philippines-military-clash-before-2027-20260723214807932
| i400 |
| No |
| 38.71K |
| budu100 | No | 24.48K |
| Rapid-Jicama | No | 19.63K |
| aenews2 | Yes | 19.07K |
| Valen9 | No | 19K |
| Warren-Buffett | No | 15.26K |
| Gohst | Yes | 11.86K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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