Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 83%. Yes opened at 38.5% on 16 Jul 2026. Before it settled, the high was 57.5% on 22 Jul 2026 and the low 4.5% on 25 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 12 points up, to 57.5% on 22 Jul 2026. $9.48K traded over the market's life.
23 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 2, 9:16 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 48 points · 16 Jul 2026 – 1 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Jul 2026 | 38.5% |
| 1 Sep 2026 | 17.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| beata-monalisa | Yes | 265.73 |
| DREAMBIG. | Yes | 200 |
| ConstantineVIII | Yes | 90 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered. Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/chatgpt-full-outage-by-august-31-20260715010037673
| Frizzy-Corsage | Yes | 54.55 |
| Erick666 | Yes | 21.54 |
| S888 | Yes | 20 |
| yueyueyn | Yes | 16 |
| qcp14 | Yes | 13.34 |
| essiyvl | Yes | 9.7 |
| qdjfm | Yes | 6.13 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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