Analytics
Yes is at 26.5%, down 22 points from 49% when the market opened on 23 Sep 2026.
The high was 49% on 23 Sep 2026 and the low 20% on 1 Oct 2026. A week ago Yes was at 24%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 33% on 24 Sep 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “ChatGPT Full Outage by...?”.
$74.78 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $4.2K since listing. The order book holds $107.8, with a 37.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 78 trades, $372.31 bought Yes and $1.22K bought No.
The largest Yes position is CalculatedRisk08 with 1K shares; the largest No position is mathrex with 934.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 19 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 13, 1:05 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 22 points · 23 Sep 2026 – 13 Oct 2026 · axis zoomed to 10%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Sep 2026 | 49.0% |
| 13 Oct 2026 | 26.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| CalculatedRisk08 | Yes | 1.01K |
| mathrex | No | 933.55 |
| fouc | No | 338.42 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered. Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/chatgpt-full-outage-by-august-31-20260715010037673
| beata-monalisa |
| Yes |
| 251.25 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 109.29 |
| Wellv | No | 103.19 |
| tradetosurvive1 | Yes | 90.37 |
| AJSV | No | 80.46 |
| Fihdrzgdd | Yes | 60 |
| youtube-trader | No | 40 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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