Analytics
Yes is at 34.5%, down 2 points from 36.5% when the market opened on 1 Oct 2026.
The high was 64% on 9 Oct 2026 and the low 35.5% on 2 Oct 2026. A week ago Yes was at 53.5%. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 42% on 10 Oct 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “ChatGPT Full Outage by...?”.
$294.16 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $2.41K since listing. The order book holds $116.45, with a 17.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 49 trades, $308.79 bought Yes and $967.29 bought No.
The largest Yes position is DREAMBIG. with 789 shares; the largest No position is mathrex with 1.1K.
Trading closes on 1 Dec 2026, 49 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 13, 7:05 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 13 points · 1 Oct 2026 – 13 Oct 2026 · axis zoomed to 20%–70%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | 36.5% |
| 13 Oct 2026 | 53.0% |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered. Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/chatgpt-full-outage-by-august-31-20260715010037673
| fouc |
| No |
| 334.35 |
| qcp14 | Yes | 67.29 |
| Wellv | No | 46.85 |
| Carabao | No | 40 |
| tradetosurvive1 | Yes | 20 |
| FFFF3 | Yes | 20 |
| bechamel | Yes | 20 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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