
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 12% on 9 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 246 daily closes on record from 9 Oct 2025 to 1 Jul 2026 (20 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 44.5% on 12 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 28 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 27 points up, to 38.5% on 11 Oct 2025. $42.82K traded over the market's life.
123 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 1, 6:53 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 246 points, 9 Oct 2025 – 1 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2025 | 12.0% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 449.99 |
| HYX333 | Yes | 300 |
| Avaricious-Kale | Yes | 250 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution. A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution. Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify. This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/any-us-state-legislature-votes-on-secession-by-june-30-2026
| ster | Yes | 232.93 |
| FrankyFourFingers | Yes | 199.99 |
| fm14 | Yes | 100 |
| lissartter | Yes | 86.92 |
| 88mnm88 | Yes | 86.16 |
| Ardtysrt01 | Yes | 73.09 |
| goaks18 | Yes | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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