Analytics
Yes is at 9.5%, down 26 points from 35.5% when the market opened on 6 Nov 2025.
Across the 341 daily closes on record from 6 Nov 2025 to 24 Oct 2026 (12 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 65% on 8 Nov 2025 and the lowest 7.5% on 20 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 9%; a month before, 12%. Its largest one-day move was 31 points up, to 65% on 8 Nov 2025.
$13.89K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $1K, with a 13.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is GUINESS123 with 398 shares; the largest No position is GTOrski1 with 390. Ten wallets hold 68.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 69 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 7:46 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 341 points, 6 Nov 2025 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2025 | 35.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 9.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| GUINESS123 | Yes | 397.87 |
| GTOrski1 | No | 389.88 |
| peepeepooppoop | Yes | 361.44 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/another-us-debt-downgrade-before-2027
| ineedmassage |
| No |
| 361.17 |
| perseo | No | 323 |
| gummy-usb | Yes | 304 |
| djl605 | No | 300 |
| Nadmi | Yes | 250 |
| Cobalt Comet E097 | Yes | 200.54 |
| okakokak | No | 199.43 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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