Analytics
Yes is at 5.5%, down 43 points from 48.5% when the market opened on 13 Nov 2025.
Across the 322 daily closes on record from 13 Nov 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (29 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 89.5% on 27 Jan 2026 and the lowest 1.8% on 17 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 5.3%; a month before, 5.7%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 70% on 2 Dec 2025.
$41.33K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $4.54K, with a 0.7% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 486 trades, $3.47K bought Yes and $9.34K bought No; the largest was a $1.8K sell of No at 96.0¢.
The largest Yes position is gagagagagaga with 2.1K shares; the largest No position is enrico-vasaio with 2.1K. Ten wallets hold 69.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 7:44 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 322 points, 13 Nov 2025 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Nov 2025 | 48.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 5.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| gagagagagaga | Yes | 2.07K |
| enrico-vasaio | No | 2.05K |
| Diligent-Scenario | No | 1.83K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal-in-2026
| BiggieChungus | Yes | 1.18K |
| PaddyAlpha | No | 1.03K |
| intiluha | No | 562.48 |
| tradetosurvive1 | Yes | 458.66 |
| Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yes | 406 |
| HerrieDavis | Yes | 362.73 |
| Turbulent-Decline-Router | Yes | 362 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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