Analytics
Resolved Yes on 1 Aug 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 75%. Yes opened at 34% on 12 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 21 daily closes on record from 12 Jul 2025 to 1 Aug 2025, the highest close was 75% on 1 Aug 2025 and the lowest 30% on 14 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 25 points down, to 36.5% on 20 Jul 2025. $18.32K traded over the market's life.
25 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 3, 12:51 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 21 points, 12 Jul 2025 – 1 Aug 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Jul 2025 | 34.0% |
| 1 Aug 2025 | 75.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| CheekyDevil | No | 267.83 |
| can111 | No | 94.94 |
| skepticynic | No | 74 |
| S888 | No | 25 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
On July 10, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 35% tariff to all imports from Canada beginning August 1 (see: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-us-canada-imports-35-tariff-trade-war-mark-carney-rcna218182) This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 35% tariff on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by August 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date for the tariffs must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. A general tariff that includes item-specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 35% tariff on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect. Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/35-canada-tariff-in-effect-by-august-1
| noninoggnoa | No | 15.94 |
| Manifested | No | 6 |
| ct93 | No | 5.66 |
| FINN | No | 4.69 |
| ctp | No | 3.33 |
| aartiomm | No | 3.17 |
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