Analytics
Resolved Yes on 11 Sep 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.6%. Yes opened at 52.5% on 8 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 35 daily closes on record from 8 Aug 2025 to 11 Sep 2025, the highest close was 99.7% on 10 Sep 2025 and the lowest 37% on 13 Aug 2025. Its largest one-day move was 22 points up, to 59% on 14 Aug 2025. $198.12K traded over the market's life.
22 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 12, 4:36 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 35 points, 8 Aug 2025 – 11 Sep 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2025 | 52.5% |
| 11 Sep 2025 | 99.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 4.85K |
| puravida | No | 1.37K |
| PepsiSexi | No | 1.35K |
| 47Art | No | 240 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2025 shows the third greatest increase of any prior August when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At the point the data for August 2025 is first released, it will be compared to all previous data points for August, and if 2025 August is higher than all but two previous data points, this market will resolve to "Yes". Note: If 2025 August is tied for third highest with another year, it will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - it must be higher. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA August be used. If no information for August 2025 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/2025-august-third-hottest-on-record
| raspberry17 | No | 200 |
| lissartter | No | 193.02 |
| Nemilosrdela1 | No | 174.24 |
| JSoon | No | 150 |
| Multicolored-Waterfall | No | 110 |
| lucjj | No | 90.91 |
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