Question 1

What is the “10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday?” market asking?

Accepted Answer

It asks whether the following will happen: 10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

Question 2

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

Accepted Answer

At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

Question 3

When does this market close?

Accepted Answer

Trading is scheduled to close on Jul 4, 2025. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

Question 4

How does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Treasury 10-year yield on July 4, 2025 is greater than 4.50% according to the daily values published by the Department of the Treasury. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Question 5

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Accepted Answer

24h volume ($21.76K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Question 6

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Accepted Answer

Vultax loaded 13 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 99.2% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Question 7

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Accepted Answer

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Jul 9, 8:29 AM) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Question 8

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

Accepted Answer

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/10-year-treasury-yield-4pt5-friday-598) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
cossack001	Yes	1K	1.2%	$1K
dsgm	Yes	726.57	1.4%	$726.57	Jul 1, 9:15 PM

Trader	Current holding value
cossack001	$0
dsgm	$0
1137au	$0
St-Qc	$0
M....	$0
Repper	$0
BreadNova	$0
TheComandanteCobra	$0
Silwerfrost	$0
JiminFan42	$0
josebarn	$0
HippidyHippo	$0

10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday?

Questions about this market