10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday?

Resolved

No, settled Jul 8, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$21.8K

Resolved

Settled

Jul 8, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 8 Jul 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 7.5% on 28 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 11 daily closes on record from 28 Jun 2025 to 8 Jul 2025, the highest close was 7.5% on 28 Jun 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 7 Jul 2025. $21.76K traded over the market's life.

17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jul 9, 8:29 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 11 points, 28 Jun 2025 – 8 Jul 2025, chart shows 0%–10%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
28 Jun 2025	7.5%
8 Jul 2025	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
cossack001	Yes	1K
dsgm	Yes	726.57
1137au	Yes	500
St-Qc	Yes	443.97

10 of 17 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Treasury 10-year yield on July 4, 2025 is greater than 4.50% according to the daily values published by the Department of the Treasury. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).