Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?No | sell | 6.26 | $0.993 | $6.22 | Jul 23, 2026 |
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| sell |
| 4.67 |
| $0.963 |
| $4.5 |
| Jul 23, 2026 |
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?No | sell | 4.69 | $0.920 | $4.31 | Jul 23, 2026 |
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?No | sell | 5.03 | $0.850 | $4.28 | Jul 23, 2026 |
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?No | sell | 4.18 | $0.994 | $4.15 | Jul 23, 2026 |
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?No | sell | 4.16 | $0.994 | $4.14 | Jul 23, 2026 |
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes | sell | 3.92 | $0.725 | $2.84 | Jul 23, 2026 |
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?No | sell | 4.17 | $0.640 | $2.67 | Jul 23, 2026 |
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Yes | sell | 5.36 | $0.440 | $2.36 | Jul 23, 2026 |
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 2.77 | $0.860 | $2.38 | Jul 23, 2026 |
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?No | sell | 2.53 | $0.920 | $2.33 | Jul 23, 2026 |
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?No | sell | 2.09 | $0.994 | $2.08 | Jul 23, 2026 |
Israeli forces enter Choukine by July 31?No | sell | 2.1 | $0.941 | $1.98 | Jul 23, 2026 |
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 8.29 | $0.070 | $0.58 | Jul 23, 2026 |
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Yes | sell | 0.43 | $0.550 | $0.24 | Jul 23, 2026 |
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes | buy | 3.92 | $0.765 | $3 | Jul 21, 2026 |
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?Yes | sell | 1.11 | $0.160 | $0.18 | Jul 21, 2026 |
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?Yes | sell | 17.64 | $0.160 | $2.82 | Jul 21, 2026 |
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?Yes | buy | 18.75 | $0.160 | $3 | Jul 21, 2026 |
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?No | sell | 3.26 | $0.910 | $2.97 | Jul 21, 2026 |
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?No | buy | 4.17 | $0.720 | $3 | Jul 17, 2026 |
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?No | sell | 0.12 | $0.690 | $0.08 | Jul 17, 2026 |
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?No | sell | 4.22 | $0.690 | $2.91 | Jul 17, 2026 |
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?No | buy | 4.35 | $0.690 | $3 | Jul 16, 2026 |
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31No | sell | 4.91 | $0.590 | $2.9 | Jul 16, 2026 |
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31No | buy | 4.92 | $0.610 | $3 | Jul 16, 2026 |
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Yes | sell | 3.94 | $0.740 | $2.92 | Jul 16, 2026 |
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Yes | buy | 3.95 | $0.760 | $3 | Jul 16, 2026 |
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Yes | sell | 4.83 | $0.610 | $2.95 | Jul 14, 2026 |
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Yes | buy | 5.26 | $0.570 | $3 | Jul 13, 2026 |
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?No | sell | 3.26 | $0.937 | $3.05 | Jul 13, 2026 |
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?No | buy | 4.69 | $0.640 | $3 | Jul 12, 2026 |
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?Yes | sell | 20 | $0.060 | $1.2 | Jul 12, 2026 |
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Yes | sell | 0.39 | $0.570 | $0.22 | Jul 10, 2026 |
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 0.17 | $0.610 | $0.1 | Jul 8, 2026 |
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?No | buy | 3.9 | $0.770 | $3 | Jul 8, 2026 |
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Yes | sell | 5.26 | $0.540 | $2.84 | Jul 8, 2026 |
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?No | buy | 4.05 | $0.740 | $3 | Jul 8, 2026 |
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Yes | buy | 5.36 | $0.560 | $3 | Jul 8, 2026 |
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Yes | buy | 5.66 | $0.530 | $3 | Jul 8, 2026 |
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 4.83 | $0.590 | $2.85 | Jul 8, 2026 |
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Yes | sell | 15 | $0.032 | $0.48 | Jul 8, 2026 |
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Yes | sell | 75 | $0.034 | $2.53 | Jul 8, 2026 |
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Yes | sell | 75 | $0.031 | $2.35 | Jul 8, 2026 |
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Yes | sell | 75 | $0.030 | $2.25 | Jul 8, 2026 |
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Yes | buy | 60 | $0.050 | $3 | Jul 8, 2026 |
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?No | sell | 3.48 | $0.840 | $2.92 | Jul 8, 2026 |
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 3.49 | $0.860 | $3 | Jul 8, 2026 |
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 5 | $0.600 | $3 | Jul 8, 2026 |
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.150 | $3 | Jul 8, 2026 |