Analytics
Yes is at 79.5%, up 22 points from 58% when the market opened on 7 Jan 2026.
Across the 263 daily closes on record from 7 Jan 2026 to 25 Oct 2026 (29 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 85% on 28 Aug 2026 and the lowest 29.5% on 21 Mar 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 83%; a month before, 82.5%. Its largest one-day move was 12 points up, to 73% on 24 May 2026.
$2.41K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $858.34K since listing. The order book holds $46.65K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is denizz with 33.4K shares; the largest No position is Threadbare-Signal with 39.8K. Ten wallets hold 56.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 68 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 12:58 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 263 points, 7 Jan 2026 – 25 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Jan 2026 | 58.0% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 79.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Threadbare-Signal | No | 39.76K |
| denizz | Yes | 33.37K |
| justme003 | Yes | 29.26K |
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET: - Trump out as President - China invades Taiwan - Xi Jinping out - U.S. invades Iran - Iranian regime falls - Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’ - Jeffrey Epstein alive - Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate - Russia invades a NATO country - Trump acquires Greenland - 9.0 or above earthquake - Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) - Major meteor strike (250kt+) Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nothing-ever-happens-2026
| TAIWANNUMBERONE |
| No |
| 13K |
| SirHarryOakes | Yes | 10.31K |
| Bulan | No | 10.02K |
| Roflan-ludoman | No | 9.55K |
| nonkenny90 | Yes | 9.19K |
| Valen9 | Yes | 7.85K |
| SwissMiss | Yes | 6.49K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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