Latest trade
Oct 25, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 25, 5:22 PM UTC.
Analytics
Sturdy-Thrush has made $1.18K on Polymarket.
Share of settled positions that closed in profit.
Losses as a share of gains across 34 settled positions.
Profit and volume as of 2026-10-20 UTC. Positions and trades are read separately; the Sources tab has their times.
From the trades and settled positions Polymarket lists for this wallet.
Oct 25, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 25, 5:22 PM UTC.
$53.29 median trade
Its latest 50 trades covered 29 markets; 74.0% were buys. They run from Jul 17, 2026 UTC to Oct 25, 2026 UTC. A recent sample, not the wallet's full history.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | No | 150 | $0.927 | $146.63 | +$7.63 |
 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in October?No | sell | 10 | $0.951 | $9.51 | 15h ago |
|
Polymarket public profile
Figures shown from the accepted source observation
2026-10-20 18:23 UTC
Polymarket public position response
14 open positions returned; page complete
2026-10-25 17:22 UTC
Polymarket public trade response
50 recent fills loaded; lifetime history not established
2026-10-25 17:22 UTC
polymarket positions
36 dated points returned
Latest chart point: 2026-10-20 18:23 UTC
Profile checked . Each figure keeps its own source time.
Compare P&L with positions and recorded trades, and check the source dates. A rank or a profitable period alone does not establish repeatable returns.
Winning positions brought in $1.76K and losing ones cost $503.12 across 34 settled positions. 64.7% of them closed in profit.
The largest win was $690.38 on “Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?” (No); the largest loss, $240.95 on “Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?” (Yes).
Its most recent trade on record was on 25 Oct 2026. It has traded 49 markets. Its open positions are worth $977.34 across 14 markets.
Source: Polymarket's public profile and leaderboard. How to read a trader profile
| Yes |
| 150 |
| $0.910 |
| $138.75 |
| +$2.25 |
 Nothing Ever Happens: October | Nothing | 106.38 | $0.940 | $103.4 | +$3.4 |
 Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in October? | No | 102.35 | $0.977 | $101.23 | +$1.23 |
 Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026? | No | 102.18 | $0.979 | $99.01 | -$0.99 |
 Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 100 | $0.865 | $81.25 | -$5.25 |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in October? | No | 60.01 | $0.963 | $58.09 | +$0.29 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | Yes | 99.75 | $0.267 | $51.37 | +$24.78 |
 Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | No | 51.33 | $0.974 | $49.79 | -$0.21 |
 Turkish troops enter Yemen by October 31, 2026? | No | 50 | $0.989 | $49.38 | -$0.06 |
 Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31? | No | 50 | $0.921 | $47.83 | +$1.79 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%? | Yes | 100 | $0.490 | $29 | -$20 |
 Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | Yes | 100 | $0.110 | $15.5 | +$4.5 |
 Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December? | Yes | 60 | $0.362 | $6.12 | -$15.63 |
| sell |
| 8.29 |
| $0.951 |
| $7.88 |
| 15h ago |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in October?No | sell | 1.7 | $0.951 | $1.62 | 23h ago |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in October?No | sell | 10 | $0.951 | $9.51 | 23h ago |
| Turkish troops enter Yemen by October 31, 2026?No | buy | 50 | $0.989 | $49.44 | 4d ago |
| Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31?No | buy | 50 | $0.921 | $46.04 | 4d ago |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in October?No | buy | 50 | $0.944 | $47.2 | 9d ago |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?No | buy | 50 | $0.940 | $47 | 9d ago |
 Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Yes | sell | 161.95 | $0.610 | $98.79 | 9d ago |
 Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?No | sell | 58 | $0.975 | $56.57 | 11d ago |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.865 | $86.5 | 12d ago |
| Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?No | buy | 102.18 | $0.979 | $100 | 12d ago |
| Nothing Ever Happens: OctoberNothing | buy | 106.38 | $0.940 | $100 | 12d ago |
| Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?No | buy | 58 | $0.862 | $50 | 12d ago |
 Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?No | buy | 117.69 | $0.425 | $50 | 12d ago |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 51.33 | $0.974 | $50 | 13d ago |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in October?No | buy | 102.35 | $0.977 | $100 | 13d ago |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in October?No | buy | 40 | $0.987 | $39.48 | 14d ago |
 Russia lifts diesel export ban by October 30?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.960 | $96 | 15d ago |
 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?Yes | buy | 30 | $0.966 | $28.98 | 15d ago |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.950 | $19 | 15d ago |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?No | buy | 100 | $0.920 | $92 | 15d ago |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.490 | $49 | 15d ago |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Yes | buy | 66 | $0.270 | $17.82 | 15d ago |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Yes | buy | 33.75 | $0.260 | $8.78 | 15d ago |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.110 | $11 | 15d ago |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes | buy | 150 | $0.910 | $136.5 | 15d ago |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Yes | buy | 161.95 | $0.617 | $100 | 15d ago |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes | sell | 468.75 | $0.140 | $65.63 | 20d ago |
 Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes | buy | 290 | $0.740 | $214.6 | Sep 9, 2026 UTC |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.740 | $7.4 | Sep 9, 2026 UTC |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes | sell | 300 | $0.730 | $219 | Sep 9, 2026 UTC |
 Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No | sell | 215 | $0.973 | $209.2 | Aug 29, 2026 UTC |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?No | sell | 275 | $0.992 | $272.8 | Aug 21, 2026 UTC |
 Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?Yes | buy | 204.92 | $0.976 | $200 | Aug 15, 2026 UTC |
| Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?Yes | buy | 309.29 | $0.970 | $300 | Aug 12, 2026 UTC |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes | buy | 468.75 | $0.640 | $300 | Aug 10, 2026 UTC |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?Yes | sell | 541.73 | $0.035 | $18.87 | Aug 7, 2026 UTC |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No | buy | 215 | $0.930 | $199.95 | Aug 7, 2026 UTC |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?No | buy | 275 | $0.910 | $250.25 | Aug 7, 2026 UTC |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes | buy | 300 | $0.710 | $213 | Aug 7, 2026 UTC |
| Israel military action against Yemen by July 31?No | buy | 70 | $0.985 | $68.95 | Jul 30, 2026 UTC |
| Israel military action against Yemen by July 31?No | buy | 100 | $0.992 | $99.2 | Jul 30, 2026 UTC |
 Spain vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceSpain | buy | 40 | $0.595 | $23.8 | Jul 19, 2026 UTC |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?Yes | buy | 25 | $0.360 | $9 | Jul 17, 2026 UTC |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?Yes | buy | 15 | $0.370 | $5.55 | Jul 17, 2026 UTC |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.360 | $7.2 | Jul 17, 2026 UTC |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?Yes | buy | 541.74 | $0.055 | $30 | Jul 17, 2026 UTC |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by July 31?No | sell | 150 | $0.930 | $139.5 | Jul 17, 2026 UTC |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in July?No | sell | 120 | $0.991 | $118.92 | Jul 17, 2026 UTC |
Placed on fixed scales: no Radar board ranking was cached on this server when the profile was read, so no archetype is claimed. Not drawn for this wallet: 2 of 8 axes. Missing axes are left out of the shape and the score is reduced when fewer than five are available. Observed just now. Watch only — not advice.