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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?Yes | sell | 257.32 | $0.434 | $111.76 | Aug 7, 2025 |
 |
| sell |
| 128.71 |
| $0.060 |
| $7.72 |
| Aug 7, 2025 |
| GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes | sell | 128.71 | $0.060 | $7.72 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes | sell | 85.8 | $0.060 | $5.15 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes | sell | 114.41 | $0.060 | $6.86 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes | sell | 152.54 | $0.028 | $4.29 | Aug 7, 2025 |
 Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025?Yes | sell | 933.76 | $0.823 | $768.76 | Aug 7, 2025 |
 Will anyone say "Browser" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?Yes | sell | 141.3 | $0.700 | $98.91 | Aug 7, 2025 |
 Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?Yes | sell | 495.04 | $0.331 | $164.1 | Aug 7, 2025 |
 OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025?No | sell | 259.09 | $0.454 | $117.74 | Aug 7, 2025 |
 Will Apple acquire Perplexity in 2025?No | sell | 34.54 | $0.720 | $24.87 | Aug 7, 2025 |
 Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?No | sell | 34.87 | $0.610 | $21.27 | Aug 7, 2025 |
 Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31?Yes | sell | 404.54 | $0.010 | $4.05 | Aug 7, 2025 |
 OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2025?Yes | sell | 62.5 | $0.050 | $3.13 | Aug 7, 2025 |
 Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?Yes | sell | 232.67 | $0.754 | $175.5 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?Yes | buy | 232.67 | $0.819 | $190.67 | Aug 7, 2025 |
 Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?Yes | sell | 1.62K | $0.118 | $190.67 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?Yes | buy | 103.56 | $0.290 | $30 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?Yes | buy | 152.98 | $0.654 | $100 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes | buy | 12.2 | $0.410 | $5 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?Yes | buy | 62.97 | $0.635 | $40 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes | buy | 11.36 | $0.440 | $5 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?Yes | buy | 56.34 | $0.710 | $40 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?Yes | buy | 27.4 | $0.730 | $20 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?Yes | buy | 61.54 | $0.650 | $40 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?Yes | buy | 32.59 | $0.780 | $25.42 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?Yes | buy | 152.41 | $0.787 | $120 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?Yes | buy | 125.49 | $0.797 | $100 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?Yes | buy | 51.28 | $0.780 | $40 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?Yes | buy | 74.07 | $0.540 | $40 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?Yes | buy | 141.62 | $0.706 | $100 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?Yes | buy | 63.97 | $0.625 | $40 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?Yes | buy | 63.97 | $0.625 | $40 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?Yes | buy | 96.19 | $0.624 | $60 | Aug 7, 2025 |
 Will any AI score ≥85% on ARC-AGI-2 by November 3?Yes | sell | 212.35 | $0.099 | $20.93 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes | buy | 22.22 | $0.450 | $10 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| Will anyone say "Browser" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?Yes | buy | 6.67 | $0.750 | $5 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes | buy | 88.89 | $0.450 | $40 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes | buy | 70.18 | $0.570 | $40 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes | buy | 68.02 | $0.588 | $40 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes | buy | 158.62 | $0.290 | $46 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes | buy | 66.67 | $0.300 | $20 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?Yes | buy | 6.49 | $0.770 | $5 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| Will anyone say "Browser" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?Yes | buy | 12.35 | $0.810 | $10 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| Will anyone say "Browser" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?Yes | buy | 48.75 | $0.820 | $40 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| Will anyone say "Browser" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?Yes | buy | 73.54 | $0.816 | $60 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?Yes | buy | 26.32 | $0.760 | $20 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?Yes | buy | 13.16 | $0.760 | $10 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes | buy | 10.71 | $0.280 | $3 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes | buy | 3.7 | $0.270 | $1 | Aug 7, 2025 |