Analytics
Resolved No on 31 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 29% on 1 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 366 daily closes on record from 1 Jan 2025 to 31 Dec 2025, the highest close was 38.5% on 2 Feb 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 28 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 16.5% on 8 Aug 2025. $2.8M traded over the market's life.
564 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:00 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 366 points, 1 Jan 2025 – 31 Dec 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2025 | 29.0% |
| 31 Dec 2025 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 897.78K |
| Thorough-Hesitation | Yes | 48.67K |
| eNakeVets | Yes | 43.52K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by OpenAI has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2025
| tink520 | Yes | 36.18K |
| botAgainstFuture | Yes | 28.06K |
| funding | Yes | 23.7K |
| bigred27 | Yes | 23.09K |
| Festka | Yes | 14.86K |
| upup1 | Yes | 12.74K |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 12.59K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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