Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Trump’s approval rating be <43.5% on September 19?Yes | buy | 1.06K | $0.095 | $100 | Sep 18, 2025 |
 |
| sell |
| 711.26 |
| $0.999 |
| $710.55 |
| Mar 6, 2025 |
| 25 bps decrease in ECB interest rates after March 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 711.26 | $0.971 | $690.49 | Feb 28, 2025 |
 Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?Yes | sell | 696.06 | $0.992 | $690.49 | Feb 28, 2025 |
| Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?Yes | buy | 55.22 | $0.640 | $35.34 | Feb 22, 2025 |
 Will Real Madrid win La Liga?Yes | sell | 86.2 | $0.410 | $35.34 | Feb 22, 2025 |
| Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?Yes | buy | 508.49 | $0.657 | $333.83 | Feb 15, 2025 |
 Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?Yes | sell | 351.4 | $0.950 | $333.83 | Feb 15, 2025 |
| Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?Yes | buy | 28.77 | $0.650 | $18.7 | Feb 13, 2025 |
| Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?Yes | sell | 102.94 | $0.180 | $18.53 | Feb 13, 2025 |
| Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?Yes | buy | 103.58 | $0.530 | $54.9 | Feb 1, 2025 |
| Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?Yes | buy | 102.95 | $0.170 | $17.5 | Feb 1, 2025 |
| Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?Yes | buy | 241.51 | $0.940 | $227.02 | Jan 28, 2025 |
 Trump mentions his memecoin in inaugural address?No | buy | 53.47 | $0.920 | $49.19 | Jan 19, 2025 |
 Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech?Yes | buy | 46.51 | $0.860 | $40 | Jan 19, 2025 |
| Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech?No | buy | 26.32 | $0.760 | $20 | Jan 19, 2025 |
| Will Real Madrid win La Liga?Yes | buy | 86.21 | $0.580 | $50 | Jan 19, 2025 |
| Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?Yes | buy | 109.89 | $0.910 | $100 | Jan 19, 2025 |
 Will Caitlyn Jenner attend presidential inauguration?Yes | buy | 27.14 | $0.921 | $25 | Jan 19, 2025 |
 Will Mark Zuckerberg attend presidential inauguration?Yes | buy | 41.19 | $0.971 | $40 | Jan 19, 2025 |
 Will Nayib Bukele attend presidential inauguration?Yes | buy | 49.38 | $0.810 | $40 | Jan 19, 2025 |
 Will it rain in LA by next Friday?No | buy | 277.23 | $0.984 | $272.88 | Jan 16, 2025 |
 Will the Palisades fire burn between 20-30k acres in total?No | sell | 89.28 | $0.050 | $4.46 | Jan 15, 2025 |
 Will ECB lower interest rates by 25bps in January 2025?Yes | buy | 72.57 | $0.820 | $59.51 | Jan 12, 2025 |
 Trump deportation executive order on Day 1?Yes | buy | 59.52 | $0.840 | $50 | Jan 12, 2025 |
| Will the Palisades fire burn between 20-30k acres in total?No | buy | 89.29 | $0.560 | $50 | Jan 12, 2025 |
| Will it rain in LA by next Friday?No | buy | 86.96 | $0.920 | $80 | Jan 11, 2025 |
 Will LA wildfires burn 40-50k acres by Sunday?Yes | buy | 268.43 | $0.931 | $250 | Jan 11, 2025 |