Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?Yes | sell | 87.71 | $0.120 | $10.53 | Oct 13, 2025 |
 |
| buy |
| 308.18 |
| $0.649 |
| $200 |
| Aug 10, 2025 |
 Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Friday June 27?Yes | sell | 154.3 | $0.704 | $108.57 | Jun 24, 2025 |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31?Yes | sell | 294.11 | $0.200 | $58.82 | Jun 24, 2025 |
| Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Friday June 27?Yes | buy | 154.31 | $0.648 | $100 | Jun 23, 2025 |
 Another US military action against Iran by Tuesday?Yes | buy | 294.34 | $0.340 | $100 | Jun 23, 2025 |
| Another US military action against Iran by Monday?Yes | sell | 1.18K | $0.125 | $147.19 | Jun 23, 2025 |
| Another US military action against Iran by Monday?Yes | buy | 1.18K | $0.170 | $200 | Jun 23, 2025 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?Yes | buy | 87.72 | $0.570 | $50 | Jun 23, 2025 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31?Yes | buy | 294.12 | $0.340 | $100 | Jun 20, 2025 |
 US military action against Iran before July?Yes | buy | 416.67 | $0.480 | $200 | Jun 20, 2025 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $107K on June 17 at 5 PM ET?Yes | buy | 125.64 | $0.032 | $4 | Jun 17, 2025 |
 Israel strike on Iran on June 18?No | buy | 666.67 | $0.030 | $20 | Jun 17, 2025 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on June 14 at 5 PM ET?Yes | buy | 757.58 | $0.660 | $500 | Jun 14, 2025 |
 Will the next Pope be from Europe?Yes | buy | 249.66 | $0.801 | $200 | May 8, 2025 |
| Will the next Pope be from Europe?Yes | buy | 122.59 | $0.816 | $100 | May 8, 2025 |
 Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?Yes | sell | 203.46 | $0.670 | $136.32 | May 8, 2025 |
| Will the next Pope be from Europe?Yes | buy | 123.75 | $0.808 | $100 | May 8, 2025 |
| Will the next Pope be from Europe?Yes | buy | 111.11 | $0.900 | $100 | May 8, 2025 |
| Will the next Pope be from Europe?Yes | buy | 110.58 | $0.904 | $100 | May 8, 2025 |
| Will the next Pope be from Europe?Yes | buy | 113.64 | $0.880 | $100 | May 8, 2025 |
| Will the next Pope be from Europe?Yes | buy | 112.23 | $0.891 | $100 | May 8, 2025 |
| Will the next Pope be from Europe?Yes | buy | 128.51 | $0.778 | $100 | May 8, 2025 |
| Will the next Pope be from Europe?Yes | buy | 118.76 | $0.842 | $100 | May 8, 2025 |
| Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?Yes | buy | 142.86 | $0.700 | $100 | May 8, 2025 |
| Will the next Pope be from Europe?Yes | buy | 111.38 | $0.898 | $100 | May 8, 2025 |
| Will the next Pope be from Europe?Yes | buy | 118.52 | $0.844 | $100 | May 8, 2025 |
 Will the next Pope require 7–8 ballots?Yes | buy | 83.33 | $0.240 | $20 | May 8, 2025 |
| Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?Yes | buy | 60.61 | $0.330 | $20 | May 8, 2025 |
| Will the next Pope be from Europe?Yes | buy | 76.92 | $0.650 | $50 | May 8, 2025 |
 Greens win over 15% of vote in German election?Yes | sell | 66.66 | $0.001 | $0.07 | Feb 25, 2025 |
 Government coalition formed within 100 days of German election?Yes | buy | 2.46K | $0.960 | $2.36K | Feb 24, 2025 |
 Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?Yes | sell | 2.19K | $0.999 | $2.19K | Feb 24, 2025 |
 Will the AfD win between 20% and 22% of the vote in the German election?Yes | sell | 43.47 | $0.994 | $43.22 | Feb 24, 2025 |
 Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government?Yes | sell | 193.61 | $0.650 | $125.85 | Feb 23, 2025 |
| Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government?Yes | buy | 193.61 | $0.570 | $110.36 | Feb 23, 2025 |
| Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election?Yes | sell | 111.11 | $0.992 | $110.22 | Feb 23, 2025 |
| Will the AfD win between 20% and 22% of the vote in the German election?Yes | buy | 43.48 | $0.460 | $20 | Feb 18, 2025 |
 Will the CDU/CSU win between 30% and 32% of the vote in the German election?Yes | buy | 46.51 | $0.430 | $20 | Feb 18, 2025 |
 Will the CDU/CSU win 30-35% of the vote in the German election?Yes | sell | 65.32 | $0.615 | $40.15 | Feb 18, 2025 |
| Will CDU/CSU and Greens form the next German Government?Yes | buy | 257.19 | $0.097 | $25 | Jan 30, 2025 |
| Will the CDU/CSU win 30-35% of the vote in the German election?Yes | buy | 261.29 | $0.612 | $160 | Jan 28, 2025 |
| Greens win over 15% of vote in German election?Yes | buy | 66.67 | $0.300 | $20 | Jan 28, 2025 |
| Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election?Yes | buy | 111.11 | $0.900 | $100 | Jan 28, 2025 |
 TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?No | buy | 220 | $0.010 | $2.2 | Jan 21, 2025 |
 Will any of Trump’s children launch a coin by Friday?Yes | buy | 20.58 | $0.117 | $2.4 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?Yes | sell | 5 | $0.920 | $4.6 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?Yes | buy | 1.13K | $0.900 | $1.01K | Jan 8, 2025 |
| Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?Yes | buy | 1.07K | $0.910 | $975.18 | Jan 5, 2025 |
 Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?No | buy | 96 | $0.010 | $0.96 | Dec 3, 2024 |