Analytics
Resolved Yes on 22 Jun 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.4%. Yes opened at 34.5% on 1 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 83 daily closes on record from 1 Apr 2025 to 22 Jun 2025, the highest close was 99.4% on 22 Jun 2025 and the lowest 3.9% on 9 Jun 2025. Its largest one-day move was 58 points up, to 99.4% on 22 Jun 2025. $29.92M traded over the market's life.
604 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 23, 8:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 83 points, 1 Apr 2025 – 22 Jun 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Apr 2025 | 34.5% |
| 22 Jun 2025 | 99.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 0xfbd | No | 401.35K |
| bambaaaa | No | 181.24K |
| 555444333222111 | No | 165.77K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates between March 31, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an the US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-military-action-against-iran-before-july
| No |
| 97.65K |
| peyton18 | No | 93.9K |
| Matalegend | No | 76.56K |
| vp621 | No | 51.88K |
| thysma | No | 50K |
| pipipi | No | 45.79K |
| letthisbelesson | No | 38.88K |
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