Analytics
Resolved No on 24 Jun 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 15.5% on 23 Jun 2025. Before it settled, the high was 15.5% on 23 Jun 2025 and the low 0.4% on 24 Jun 2025. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 0.4% on 24 Jun 2025. $1.03M traded over the market's life.
95 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 25, 8:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 23 Jun 2025 – 24 Jun 2025, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Jun 2025 | 15.5% |
| 24 Jun 2025 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Muddy-Yin | Yes | 39.41K |
| flydartball | Yes | 29.8K |
| arabslayer | Yes | 21.1K |
| AABBBAAAA | Yes | 19.92K |
| telos17 | Yes | 6.7K |
| Jman713 | Yes | 3.99K |
| Joracle | Yes | 2.68K |
| helloworld69-472 | Yes | 2.08K |
| Degenerategambler | Yes | 2.06K |
| Rayes | Yes | 2K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates between June 21, 8:00 PM ET and, June 23, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an the US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/another-us-military-action-against-iran-by-monday
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